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Abstract

The term structure of interest rates argues that a fundamental determinant of the Treasury yield curve is expected future short-term interest rates. In early 2013 it is possible to construct a predicted yield curve based on future expectations, and compare it to the actual yield curve. Due to the unconventional Federal Reserve policies that began in 2008, the actual yield curve lies well below that predicted by the term structure theory. Our research indicates that the cumulative impact as of January 2013 of the unconventional Fed monetary policies is to decrease the 10-year Treasury yield by about 80 basis points.

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