Date of Award

Spring 2025

Thesis Type

Rollins Access Only

Department

Philosophy

Sponsor

Dr. Ryan Bitetti Putzer

Committee Member

Dr. Eric Smaw

Committee Member

Dr. Barry Allen, and Dr. Phil Kozel

Abstract

The primary aim of this thesis is to carve out conceptual space in epistemology and jurisprudence for attribution science, which seeks to establish links between climate change and natural disasters. Understanding these connections is critical because climate change amplifies the severity and frequency of extreme events. However, determining whether individual disasters are attributable to anthropogenic climate change is inherently complex, introducing uncertainties that raise philosophical and legal questions. A growing application of attribution science is in climate litigation, where its findings serve as evidence linking individual actions to environmental harm. For example, in Juliana v. United States (2023), the plaintiffs argued that the U.S. government’s failure to mitigate climate change violated constitutional rights by increasing citizens’ vulnerability to extreme events. My research will explore whether climate models can provide reliable forensic evidence for such claims despite their inherent uncertainties and value-laden judgments. First, I examine the history of climate science and the mechanisms of data analysis, experimentation, and records of climate change that have given rise to attribution science. Second, I will give an analysis of attribution science and its several forms. Third, I offer a justification for attribution science’s use in law, grounded in existing standards of evidence for legal causality. Fourth, I will offer an analysis of the epistemological limitations of attribution science and demonstrate why they do not prevent the application of attribution science in law.

Rights Holder

Abrielle Mannino

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